According to a study published in The Lancet Rheumatology, gout cases are projected to increase by over 70% by 2050. This underscores the urgent need for effective management and prevention strategies.
To address both current and future demands, it is essential to analyze the burden of gout by age and sex and make future projections. Researchers used data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) covering 1990 to 2020 to evaluate global, regional, and national prevalence trends and to predict future prevalence up to 2050.
The study identified gout cases from 131 sources in the GBD database, encompassing 35 countries. They estimated the years lived with disability (YLDs) due to gout, breaking down results by age, sex, and geographic location.
In 2020, an estimated 55.8 million people globally were living with gout, a 150.6% increase from 1990 figures. The global age-standardized prevalence rate for gout was 659.3 per 100,000 population, marking a 22.5% increase since 1990. Men had a prevalence rate 3.26 times higher than women, with rates of 1030.8 and 316.4 per 100,000 population in 2020, respectively.
What does this all mean?
The findings highlight the need for targeted prevention and management strategies as the population ages, particularly among men. The highest prevalence rates were observed in high-income North America (1719.8 per 100,000), Australasia (1424.4 per 100,000), and southern Latin America (926.0 per 100,000). Between 1990 and 2020, the most significant increases in age-standardized gout prevalence occurred in high-income North America (76.6%), Australasia (32.3%), and Andean Latin America (30.4%).
In 2020, gout contributed to an estimated 1.73 million YLDs globally, with the highest rates in high-income regions. The age-standardized YLD rate was 20.5 per 100,000, a 22.0% increase from 1990. Major risk factors included high body mass index (BMI) and kidney dysfunction, accounting for 34.3% and 11.8% of YLDs due to gout, respectively.
By 2050, global gout cases are expected to reach 95.8 million, representing a 72.6% increase from 2020. The highest projected age-standardized prevalence rate is anticipated in high-income North America (1780 per 100,000). The increase is largely attributed to population aging and growth, with Oceania and sub-Saharan Africa showing the largest contributions.
Study limitations include limited data on gout prevalence in low- and middle-income countries, potential inaccuracies in prevalence estimates, and the use of high BMI and kidney dysfunction as the primary risk factors.
The researchers concluded, “Our findings underscore the need for focused prevention and management of gout, particularly as the population ages and among males.”
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